A Development of Future Scenario Simulation System of Natural Capital and Ecosystem Services on LANDIS-II ůle1em1ptLinking Qualitative Scenarios and Landscape Change Model in Japanl̊e1em1pt

Abstract

Quantitative future scenario analysis of Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (BES) plays the key role in facilitating decision making for sustainable management of landscapes. In Japan, climate change and underuse of natural resources are the critical driving forces of forest degradation. Therefore, to simulate plausible future scenarios under the Japanese societal context by using terrestrial ecosystem models, we need to represent both 1) vegetation response to climate change and 2) impacts on vegetation dynamics caused by management and abandonment. In this study, we developed a scenario simulation system based on LANDIS-II model (a Landscape Change Model). This system can model landscape change process considering with Land-Use and Land-Cover (LULC) change and management of forest and grassland and evaluate BES. We selected Bekanbeushi watershed in Hokkaido prefecture as a representative region where is vulnerable to climate change and underuse. First, we created future scenarios of 2050. The scenarios consisted of climate change scenarios based on RCP2.6 and 8.5 from CMIP5, and management scenarios of timber and pasture production. Regarding climate scenarios, we input monthly climate data in 1 km resolution from statistically downscaled MIROC5 and MRI-CGCM3. Moreover, in association with management scenarios, we translated the qualitative scenarios to quantitative dataframes, and linking them to the input interface of LANDIS-II. We localized LANDIS-II v6.2, NECN succession v4.2, and Biomass Harvest v3.2, and simulated forest succession at 100 m resolution. Finally, we evaluated the expected yields of timber and pasture, carbon stock in the forest and grassland, species composition, and LULC change. The results imply that our simulation system can visualize the plausible future of natural capital in regional scale and quantify the available ecosystem services under different scenarios. This system expected to contribute to decision making and sustainability design for regional scale.

Publication
The 9th Ecosystem Serveices Pertnership World Conference Proceedings