A Development of Simulation Process of Landscape Diversity in Satoyama Landscapes for Future Scenario Analysis -Using the LANDIS-II Model and the Modified Satoyama Index-

Abstract

The sustainable management of satoyama landscapes should be explored to promote building a society in harmony with nature. Quantitative and space explicit projection of biodiversity and ecosystem services plays the key role in facilitating effective policy making decisions for the sustainable management of satoyama landscapes. In this study, we developed a simulation process of landscape diversity for future scenario analysis by using the LANDIS-II model (a Forest Landscape Model) and the modified Satoyama index (M-SI). This study simulated the vegetation succession in 1998 to 2097 in Ishikawa prefecture where traditional satoyama and satoumi landscapes widely remain. Under four different satoyama management scenarios, we evaluated the dynamics of landscape diversity for 100-year time span by applying the M-SI. The result suggested that management of abandoned farmland had large impacts on M-SI value rather than forest management. In the scenario of continuing farmland abandonment in the area, the vegetation succession from farmland to the secondary forest was extensively observed. Such shift results in the homogenous landscape and decline of M-SI value over the period. On the other hand, under the scenario of strengthening farmland management, landscape diversity represented by M-SI value would be maintained at a higher level than that of other scenarios. These results imply that our simulation process can contribute to simulating the landscape diversity under different future scenarios, considering with land use change and forest succession.

Publication
The First Asian Ecosystem Services Partnership Conference Proceedings