Japanese rural society is shrinking, and depopulation and aging are the critical driving forces of under-use of natural resources. Abandonment of forest and farmland management cause vegetation succession and alter ecosystem services. To visualize possible prospects taking the uncertainties of social systems into consideration, a scenario approach is effective. The objective is to simulate the landscape dynamics and to analyze the changes in ecosystem services and landscape diversity under plausible future scenarios in the shrinking rural society. Bekanbeushi Watershed in northern Japan was selected as a study site where the population is continuously decreasing. This watershed is one of the representative boreal landscapes composed of forest, farmland, and wetland. We used four national scale narrative scenarios which consisted of the dimensions of population distribution (urban compactification or dispersed population) and people’s preference of consumable capital (natural or produced) developed by the Predicting and Assessing Natural Capital and Ecosystem Services (PANCES) project (http://pances.net/eng/). First, to simulate the changes in forest and farmland management, clear-cutting and thinning intensities (% yr-1) and pasture land abandonment rate (km2 yr-1) from 2015 to 2050 were set based on the scenarios. Second, landscape dynamics under the forestry practice and the expansion of pasture land abandonment were simulated from 2015 to 2050 using a Forest Landscape Model, LANDIS-II NECN succession extension v4.2. Finally, the conditions of nature (land cover and aboveground biomass) and ecosystem services (carbon sequestration and timber/grass production) were evaluated. The abandonment of pasture land resulted in the expansion of pioneer species (Betula platyphylla Sukaczev) and increased carbon stock. The forestry practice also induced a trade-off between carbon sequestration in the watershed and timber production during the simulation period. These results were used to break down the national narrative scenarios. This study simulated the forest landscape changes considering forestry practices and the farmland abandonment and analyzed impacts on terrestrial ecosystem services and landscape diversity. This approach has applicability to any changing society and contributes to following conference goals; Modelling land system change,'' Land use drivers and impacts,’’ Trade-offs for land use and conflict,'' and Land change and ecosystem services/biodiversity.’’ Moreover, changes in the land cover and the vegetation dynamics in terrestrial ecosystems impact coastal ecosystems through nutrient leaching. Therefore, the discussions of our results with land-ocean scientists will help to understand the interlinkage and contribute to the session’s theme ``Land-ocean connectivity and interactions on ecosystem structures, processes and services.''